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Nepal: geopolitical situation

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Geopolitical situation

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A dream country that hides its misery beneath the purity of its landscapes and smiles.
Far from the leaflets of tour operators and the promises of trekking agencies, here is something to help you better understand this magnificent country and its diverse and endearing population.














Nepal is an Asian country located in the Himalayas, bordered to the north by the People's Republic of China (Tibet Autonomous Region) and to the south by India. Its capital is Kathmandu, the official language is Nepali, and the currency is the Nepalese rupee.
Nepal is a small country covering 147,181 km², with elevations ranging from 60 meters in the Terai to 8,848 meters at Mount Everest. This vast elevation range results in a wide variety of climates and terrains:
* subtropical in the Terai region to the south; 
* temperate in the central region of low mountains and hills;
* cold and dry in the high Himalayan mountain region.
Only 20% of the country’s total land area is arable, and the population’s growing demand for heating and rice is leading to alarming deforestation.

 

HISTORY 
Modern Nepal emerged in the 18th century when a prince from Gorkha succeeded, through a series of ruthless military campaigns, in unifying a group of previously independent states in the foothills of the Himalayas. The Shah dynasty thus founded remained in power until 2007, but was confined to ceremonial and representative functions by a parallel dynasty of prime ministers, the Ranas, between 1830 and 1950. Under the Ranas, Nepal was strictly closed to foreigners, with only a British high commissioner residing in Kathmandu.
The Shahs regained effective power in 1950 and began to tentatively modernize Nepal, where infrastructure and an educational system had previously been nonexistent.

Representative institutions were established, and parliamentary democracy was introduced in 1990. 

 

But these measures could neither alleviate nor resolve the extent of poverty and inequality in rural areas or in cities: unrest grew, and beginning in 1996, a full-scale Maoist-inspired guerrilla war broke out, which quickly escalated into a civil war.
Within ten years, the Maoists had taken control of vast territories where they established a parallel state and implemented their development projects, particularly in support of women, untouchables, and ethnic minorities, while expanding public health and sanitation initiatives, literacy programs, and education. Yet all of this was not achieved without violence or coercion.
In 2001, a massacre whose background remains shrouded in mystery decimated the royal family. The new king, Gyanendra—unpopular and suspected of instigating the massacre—proved politically incapable of handling the situation: in 2006, a general strike defeated the king, and in December 2007, the monarchy was abolished.

Today, after a dozen years that were at times chaotic but ultimately promising, Nepal has become a federal, secular parliamentary republic (Constitution of September 20, 2015). 

A woman from the “Unified Marxist-Leninist Communist Party,” Bidya Devi Bandhari, was elected President of the Republic and re-elected in 2018. The various administrative levels, including the seven federal provinces, as well as a bicameral Parliament, were established throughout 2017 and into early 2018 through successive elections, in which the coalition of communist left-wing parties consistently prevailed.

 

But what is most striking is the emergence—sometimes violent and often very uncompromising—of a genuine civic spirit: Nepalese people no longer hesitate to denounce endemic corruption and hold their leaders accountable. 
On the other hand, the ghosts of the civil war, despite a policy of national reconciliation initiated in 2009 by the main parties (the two communist parties and the Congress Party), resurface at any moment. 

 

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Summary of Recent Political Developments

On Thursday, September 4, 2025, the Nepalese government announced that all social media platforms (including Facebook, WhatsApp, TikTok, Instagram, Snapchat, YouTube, LinkedIn, X, Reddit, and Signal) would be banned the following Sunday for failing to register with the authorities as foreign entities and on the grounds that some users were using these platforms to spread hate speech and fake news.


On Sunday, September 7, the ban took effect and was implemented amid widespread confusion.
“The Supreme Court merely requested that social media platforms be regulated and held accountable.”

 

“This government has found a pretext to stifle the protests,” denounced Nepalese writer Khagendra Sangraula.
Meanwhile, protests by young people are taking shape across the country—but especially in Kathmandu—as they oppose this suspension while also denouncing, above all, the corruption of the elites and the scandal of their lifestyle.

The fact is that the children of the ruling class, both political and economic elites, have for some time now made a habit of putting themselves on display, particularly on TikTok, thereby revealing to the Nepalese people the idle and luxurious lives they lead in a country where poverty—and even destitution—are very prevalent among most of its inhabitants, and where the standard of living for the middle class remains difficult.

The government clearly did not initially anticipate the consequences of these activities, as most of its members were just as “out of touch” as their offspring. Is the announced suspension of the networks actually the result of a change of heart? Again, it’s hard to say.

In any case, multiple calls to protest led, on Monday, September 8, to massive gatherings of young people and to violence, particularly in front of Parliament, which some attempted to storm and which was eventually set on fire.

The police then opened fire. Nineteen people were killed and more than 400 injured. The death toll eventually reached nearly 80. The crackdown on the demonstration plunged Nepal back into the ominous atmosphere of authoritarian drift that the monarchy had entered just before it was abolished in 2008.

 

Meanwhile, the government has reversed its ban on social media.

On Tuesday, September 9, Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli announced the complete suspension of the bans.

 

He also said he was “saddened” by the number of deaths and injuries and promised an investigation… before deciding to resign on September 9. Despite his resignation, unruly rioters set fire to several government buildings, including the Parliament.

 

Following a caretaker government led by Ms. Sushila Karki, elections are scheduled for March 5, 2026. There is a plethora of small, poorly organized parties. Ultimately, the parliamentary elections are won by a landslide by the Independent National Party (RSP, centrist), which secured 182 of the 275 seats up for grabs.

Most notable figure: Balendra Shah. An unconventional figure, this former rapper and former mayor of Kathmandu is appointed prime minister at the age of 35. 

Among his very first priorities, Balendra Shah will have to decide how to proceed with the findings of the commission of inquiry into the September events; it is a time for settling scores before major reforms. Nepal’s former Prime Minister Sharma Oli and other former ministers are charged with allowing security forces to fire on the crowd, as well as with corruption and money laundering.

In the wake of military actions against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the new government is heading toward a multi-faceted crisis.

It would have been difficult for the RSP to keep its promises; the war in the Middle East makes the task even more daunting. 

All pillars of the Nepalese economy have already been affected: remittances from abroad, the cost of oil imports, and tourism have taken a severe hit since the start of the spring season. 

The most painful issue is surely the fact that Nepalese migrants in Arab countries may be forced to return home. The result: a sharp drop in remittances sent home by migrants and the challenge of reintegrating some of the 2 million Nepalis currently in the war zone in the Middle East, who may wish to return home for safety reasons or because they have lost their jobs.

Aviation and Tourism: The aviation sector is facing a double blow: a global rise in jet fuel prices and the cancellation of flights via Doha, Dubai, and Kuwait—the main entry points for tourists to Nepal.

Solution: the Chinese: “If Nepal makes a decisive shift toward Chinese tourism right now—through incentives, expedited visas, and trade missions to tour operators—the fall season could be saved.” Raj Gyawali, tourism expert.

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